PHNOM PENH: The World Bank has shaved its Cambodian growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3 percent for this year.
But its 5.1 percent forecast for 2027 is unchanged from its previous projection in June last year.
The bank has meanwhile raised Cambodia’s growth estimate for last year by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8 percent.
Latest forecasts are contained in the bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in Washington on Tuesday.
The outlook for Cambodia this year is in line with the bank’s 4.4 percent growth forecast for China and similar to the projections of 4.1 percent for Malaysia and for 4.0 percent for Laos.
VIETNAM LEADS, THAILAND LAGS
Among other ASEAN countries, growth forecasts range from a high of 6.3 percent for Vietnam and a low of 1.8 percent for Thailand.
Growth is also forecast at 5.3 percent in the Philippines, 5.0 percent in Indonesia, 3.4 percent in Timor-Leste and 3.0 percent in Myanmar.
The bank says an export slowdown in emerging market and developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific is likely to be smaller than expected amid rising Chinese shipments to non-U.S. markets and demand for chips driven by artificial intelligence (AI).
DETAILS OF U.S. TRADE DEALS UNCLEAR
Even though many economies have reached trade agreements with the United States, the bank says uncertainty remains high.
“Details related to rules-of-origin and transshipments remain unclear,” it says. “Tariff exemptions for sectors such as electronics and semiconductors could also prove temporary.”
Manufacturers highly exposed to U.S. markets are “particularly vulnerable” — notably Cambodia and Vietnam followed by China, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
On the upside, the private sector’s ability to adapt to higher trade barriers is expected to boost growth and reduce the drag from slower exports.
AI ADOPTION COULD FUEL EXPORTS
In addition, increased technology investment and AI adoption could fuel demand for exports.
The bank finds “some evidence” that automation is boosting manufacturing jobs and wages in some economies in the Asia-Pacific region.
Moreover, many economies ranking high in terms of AI preparedness “could benefit more from AI-induced productivity gains.”
The bank notes that China and Malaysia were leading the region in AI preparedness in 2023 followed by Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.